Social media and the Two Loop theory

What comes next + our role in shaping it

As bots and ads dominate our feeds and digital burnout reaches epidemic levels, businesses that have relied on social media to drive growth for years are waking up to the reality that the old playbook does not work anymore. This isn't a temporary glitch in the system gang! It's a system in collapse.

We're at the inflection point between Big Social’s decline and what comes next. The organisations that recognise this shift early will build stronger, more sustainable digital worlds while others cling to failing platforms. Beyond recognising the moment we’re in, this is also the moment to take responsibility as users, marketers, operators, and builders for what happens next.

It’s tempting to think there are “good” social media platforms that will appear for us to jump to. That we’ll move on to other apps with similar functionality and reach but decentralised structures and no ad slop. Such spaces don’t exist.

Social media + the Two Loop model

Source: The Innovation Unit

Systems thinking helps us to understand how everything in life is interconnected and provides tools for making sense of the complex relationships between different forces and actors.

A systems thinking tool I’ve been using to consider social media's current place in culture is the Two Loop model pictured above, developed by Margaret Wheatley and Deborah Frieze of the Berkana Institute in the early 2000s. The theory emerged from their observations of how large-scale systems that work well for some (like economies, industries, and social structures) naturally decline while new emergent alternatives take root.

We've hit peak social media; the top of arc one on the diagram. Ad costs are rising, platforms openly prioritise profit over user wellbeing, and trust is eroding.

Meanwhile, along the bottom curve, new forms of digital connection and discovery are emerging: decentralised networks like Bluesky, owned platforms built for specific communities, AI-driven curation spaces like Sublime, and a resurgence of prioritising offline connection.

The emerging systems currently bubbling up are the beginnings of what comes next. As Selena Coles wrote about brilliantly last week, there are “pockets of possibility” everywhere in this landscape.

For example, I loved how House of Beautiful Business recently brought their social media following directly into their internal conversation about whether to stay on legacy social platforms. In doing so they acknowledged two crucial realities: that these decisions should be driven by community members, not just the brand, and that there is no clear-cut "right" next move. We're navigating the messy middle; a complex landscape of trade-offs where each organisation must decide its own path through competing considerations.

Source: Pinterest

If you're reading this, you are already questioning how long the status quo of social media can carry on and what comes next. Taking inspiration from the phases of the Two Loop model, here are four actions we can all take as we shape our collective future digital landscape and a new system emerges:

1. Identify the pioneers. If you're questioning what comes after social as we know it - this is you.

2. Get together. Connect with others thinking similarly about digital futures.

3. Experiment! Online and offline. Share ideas and outcomes.

4. Broaden the conversation to include more people and perspectives always.

But hang on, you might be thinking, "My business still gets results from social media." That's ok. Keep those channels running while they serve you, but as the old system continues its decline, invest meaningful resources in exploring elsewhere.

The organisations thriving five years from now won't be those who clung longest to familiar platforms, chasing growth at all costs metrics, but those who actively shaped alternatives while others waited for clear answers. We aren't just witnessing what comes next we are collectively creating it.

---

Thanks for reading! I'm thinking about hosting a London Broken Growth meet up in Spring. The vibe would be chilled; coffee/drinks and a chat about what comes after Big Social, the insanity of growth at all costs and other lighthearted topics we’ve discussed in the comments recently lol. If you want to be kept in the loop let me know - I’d love to meet you and chat IRL :)

Matilda